Who is favoured, Minnesota Wild or Tampa Bay Lightning?

Tampa Bay Lightning, at 57.6% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning, Thu, Oct 8: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Thu, Oct 8, 7:00 PM ET

Minnesota WildMIN

101 proj. pts · 65.5% playoffs

Filip Gustavsson · 0.904 SV%

Bvs7:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay LightningTBL

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

TBL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 54.1% of the expected goals to 51.2%; TBL's power play ran at 20.4% against a MIN kill at 76.9%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) saved 1.5 goals above expected to Filip Gustavsson's -9.1, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.904.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Tampa Bay Lightning over Minnesota Wild is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

MIN

Filip Gustavsson

SV%: 0.904
GSAx: -9.1
GAA: 2.69
Record: 28-15-6

50 games, 2025-26

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy

SV%: 0.912
GSAx: +1.5
GAA: 2.31
Record: 39-15-4

58 games, 2025-26

MIN	Metric	TBL
51.2%	xGF% (5v5)	54.1%
49.5%	Shot share	51.6%
3.3	Goals for / game	3.4
3.0	Goals against / game	2.8
24.3%	Power play	20.4%
76.9%	Penalty kill	82.4%
47.0%	Faceoffs	47.1%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Minnesota Wild

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Matt Boldy	L	35	45	80
Kirill Kaprizov	L	38	41	79
Quinn Hughes	D	12	67	78
Brock Faber	D	13	35	47

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Nikita Kucherov	R	33	67	100

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-03-24	MIN @ TBL	TBL	MIN 3–6 TBL	Correct
2026-03-03	TBL @ MIN	TBL	TBL 1–5 MIN	Missed

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Minnesota Wild	101	65.5%
Tampa Bay Lightning	104	65.7%

Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.

The read

In goal

Last season, side by side

Who drives it

Schedule around it

Last season, head to head

Season outlook