Who is favoured, Pittsburgh Penguins or Colorado Avalanche?

Colorado Avalanche, at 61.8% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche, Fri, Oct 16: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Fri, Oct 16, 9:00 PM ET

Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT

97 proj. pts · 50.9% playoffs

Arturs Silovs · 0.888 SV%

Bvs9:00 PM ET

Colorado AvalancheCOL

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

COL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 57.6% of the expected goals to 50.9%; COL's power play ran at 17.8% against a PIT kill at 81.9%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Mackenzie Blackwood (COL) saved -6.0 goals above expected to Arturs Silovs's -23.2, on save percentages of 0.904 and 0.888.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Colorado Avalanche over Pittsburgh Penguins is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

PIT

Arturs Silovs

SV%: 0.888
GSAx: -23.2
GAA: 3.07
Record: 19-12-8

39 games, 2025-26

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood

SV%: 0.904
GSAx: -6.0
GAA: 2.50
Record: 23-10-2

39 games, 2025-26

PIT	Metric	COL
50.9%	xGF% (5v5)	57.6%
51.1%	Shot share	56.3%
3.4	Goals for / game	3.7
3.1	Goals against / game	2.4
23.5%	Power play	17.8%
81.9%	Penalty kill	84.0%
48.1%	Faceoffs	51.2%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Sidney Crosby	C	29	47	76
Evgeni Malkin	C	21	39	59
Erik Karlsson	D	11	38	49
Bryan Rust	R	21	26	47

Colorado Avalanche

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Nathan MacKinnon	C	38	70	108

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-03-24	COL @ PIT	COL	COL 6–2 PIT	Correct
2026-03-16	PIT @ COL	COL	PIT 7–2 COL	Missed

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Pittsburgh Penguins	97	50.9%
Colorado Avalanche	107	78.3%

Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.

The read

In goal

Last season, side by side

Who drives it

Schedule around it

Last season, head to head

Season outlook