PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
Final · Wed, Oct 21, 7:30 PM ET
Jacob Markstrom · 0.883 SV%
The preseason ratings make Ottawa Senators 60.7% to win at home: a clear lean, worth 10.7 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project OTT for 100 points and FLA for 92.
The model leaned Ottawa Senators at 60.7%.
PuckCast had Ottawa Senators at 60.7% to win this game on Wed, Oct 21. The matchup detail follows.
FLA controlled play at 5v5 last season, 53.7% of the expected goals to 51.3%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Linus Ullmark (OTT) saved -23.2 goals above expected to Jacob Markstrom's -29.8, on save percentages of 0.891 and 0.883.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Ottawa Senators over Florida Panthers is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
FLA
Jacob Markstrom
44 games, 2025-26
OTT
Linus Ullmark
49 games, 2025-26
| FLA | Metric | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 53.7% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.3% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Florida Panthers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brady Tkachuk | L | 29 | 38 | 67 |
 Sam Reinhart | C | 31 | 34 | 65 |
 Matthew Tkachuk | L | 23 | 41 | 63 |
 Carter Verhaeghe | C | 23 | 29 | 52 |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tim Stützle | C | 32 | 57 | 90 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Florida Panthers | 92 | 38.1% |
| Ottawa Senators | 100 | 58.0% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: OTT 3, FLA 8
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | FLA @ OTT | FLA 1, OTT 5 | OTT hit |
| 2026-03-31 | OTT @ FLA | OTT 3, FLA 6 | OTT missed |
| 2026-01-10 | FLA @ OTT | FLA 3, OTT 2 | OTT missed |
| 2025-10-11 | OTT @ FLA | OTT 2, FLA 6 | FLA hit |
| 2025-04-05 | FLA @ OTT | FLA 0, OTT 3 | FLA missed |
| 2025-02-08 | OTT @ FLA | OTT 1, FLA 5 | FLA hit |
| 2024-10-10 | FLA @ OTT | FLA 1, OTT 3 | FLA missed |
| 2024-04-09 | OTT @ FLA | OTT 0, FLA 2 | FLA hit |
 Drake Batherson | R | 26 | 37 | 63 |
|---|
 Jake Sanderson | D | 12 | 42 | 54 |
|---|
 Claude Giroux | R | 16 | 37 | 53 |
|---|
OTT@
VGK
