Who is favoured, San Jose Sharks or Ottawa Senators?

Ottawa Senators, at 62.7% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators, Thu, Oct 22: prediction and odds forecast

PuckCast Edge

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2026-27 forecast · Thu, Oct 22, 7:00 PM ET

San Jose SharksSJS

91 proj. pts · 45.4% playoffs

Alex Nedeljkovic · 0.896 SV%

Bvs7:00 PM ET

Ottawa SenatorsOTT

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

OTT controlled play at 5v5 last season, 55.4% of the expected goals to 47.0%; OTT's power play ran at 22.5% against a SJS kill at 76.4%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Alex Nedeljkovic (SJS) saved -14.6 goals above expected to Linus Ullmark's -23.2, on save percentages of 0.896 and 0.891.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Ottawa Senators over San Jose Sharks is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic

SV%: 0.896
GSAx: -14.6
GAA: 2.87
Record: 18-14-4

40 games, 2025-26

OTT

Linus Ullmark

SV%: 0.891
GSAx: -23.2
GAA: 2.73
Record: 28-12-8

49 games, 2025-26

SJS	Metric	OTT
47.0%	xGF% (5v5)	55.4%
46.5%	Shot share	53.7%
3.0	Goals for / game	3.3
3.5	Goals against / game	3.0
21.2%	Power play	22.5%
76.4%	Penalty kill	76.4%
47.8%	Faceoffs	54.7%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

San Jose Sharks

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Macklin Celebrini	C	39	60	99
Will Smith	C	25	36	60
Mason Marchment	L	17	24	41
Tyler Toffoli	C	19	22	41

Ottawa Senators

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Tim Stützle	C	32	57	90

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-03-15	SJS @ OTT	OTT	SJS 4–7 OTT	Correct
2025-11-22	OTT @ SJS	OTT	OTT 3–2 SJS	Correct

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
San Jose Sharks	91	45.4%
Ottawa Senators	100	58.0%

Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.

The read

In goal

Last season, side by side

Who drives it

Schedule around it

Last season, head to head

Season outlook