PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
Final · Wed, Oct 28, 7:30 PM ET
Dan Vladar · 0.906 SV%
The preseason ratings make Washington Capitals 54.6% to win at home: barely a lean at all, worth 4.6 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project WSH for 98 points and PHI for 98.
The model leaned Washington Capitals at 54.6%.
PuckCast had Washington Capitals at 54.6% to win this game on Wed, Oct 28. The matchup detail follows.
WSH controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.9% of the expected goals to 39.5%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Logan Thompson (WSH) saved 2.8 goals above expected to Dan Vladar's -5.5, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.906.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Washington Capitals over Philadelphia Flyers is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
PHI
Dan Vladar
52 games, 2025-26
WSH
Logan Thompson
58 games, 2025-26
| PHI | Metric | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 39.5% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.9% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Travis Konecny | R | 25 | 39 | 64 |
 Matvei Michkov | R | 24 | 35 | 59 |
 Trevor Zegras | C | 19 | 31 | 50 |
 Owen Tippett | R | 23 | 22 | 44 |
Washington Capitals
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alex Ovechkin | L | 34 | 29 | 63 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Flyers | 98 | 53.4% |
| Washington Capitals | 98 | 51.2% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: WSH 8, PHI 3
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | PHI @ WSH | PHI 4, WSH 6 | WSH hit |
| 2026-03-11 | WSH @ PHI | WSH 1, PHI 4 | WSH missed |
| 2026-02-25 | PHI @ WSH | PHI 1, WSH 3 | WSH hit |
| 2026-02-03 | WSH @ PHI | WSH 2, PHI 4 | PHI hit |
| 2025-03-20 | PHI @ WSH | PHI 2, WSH 3 | WSH hit |
| 2025-02-06 | WSH @ PHI | WSH 4, PHI 3 | WSH hit |
| 2024-10-23 | PHI @ WSH | PHI 3, WSH 6 | WSH hit |
| 2024-10-22 | WSH @ PHI | WSH 4, PHI 1 | WSH hit |
 Dylan Strome | C | 21 | 39 | 60 |
|---|
 Alex Tuch | R | 26 | 30 | 57 |
|---|
 Jordan Kyrou | R | 25 | 32 | 56 |
|---|
DAL@
WSH
