PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Thu, Nov 12, 7:00 PM ET
Filip Gustavsson · 0.904 SV%
The preseason ratings make Minnesota Wild 55.8% to win on the road: a modest lean, worth 5.8 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project MIN for 101 points and TOR for 85.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Minnesota Wild a 55.8% chance to win on Thu, Nov 12. The matchup detail follows.
MIN controlled play at 5v5 last season, 54.4% of the expected goals to 47.3%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Filip Gustavsson (MIN) saved -9.1 goals above expected to Sergei Bobrovsky's -41.5, on save percentages of 0.904 and 0.877.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Minnesota Wild over Toronto Maple Leafs is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
MIN
Filip Gustavsson
50 games, 2025-26
TOR
Sergei Bobrovsky
52 games, 2025-26
| MIN | Metric | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 54.4% | xGF% (5v5) | 47.3% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Minnesota Wild
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Boldy | L | 35 | 45 | 80 |
 Kirill Kaprizov | L | 38 | 41 | 79 |
 Quinn Hughes | D | 12 | 67 | 78 |
 Joel Eriksson Ek | C | 17 | 24 | 41 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Auston Matthews | C | 40 | 39 | 79 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Wild | 101 | 65.5% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 85 | 22.9% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: TOR 3, MIN 3
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | TOR @ MIN | TOR 4, MIN 2 | MIN missed |
| 2026-01-19 | MIN @ TOR | MIN 6, TOR 3 | MIN hit |
| 2025-01-29 | MIN @ TOR | MIN 3, TOR 1 | TOR missed |
| 2024-11-03 | TOR @ MIN | TOR 1, MIN 2 | MIN hit |
| 2023-11-19 | TOR @ MIN | TOR 4, MIN 3 | TOR hit |
| 2023-10-14 | MIN @ TOR | MIN 4, TOR 7 | TOR hit |
 William Nylander | R | 31 | 43 | 74 |
|---|
 Darren Raddysh | D | 13 | 34 | 47 |
|---|
 Morgan Rielly | D | 7 | 29 | 36 |
|---|
LAK@
TOR
