PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM ET
Logan Thompson · 0.912 SV%
The preseason ratings make Boston Bruins 55.7% to win at home: a modest lean, worth 5.7 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project BOS for 99 points and WSH for 98.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Boston Bruins a 55.7% chance to win on Sat, Nov 21. The matchup detail follows.
at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (51.8% to 51.9%).
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Logan Thompson (WSH) saved 2.8 goals above expected to Jeremy Swayman's -4.6, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.908.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Boston Bruins over Washington Capitals is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
WSH
Logan Thompson
58 games, 2025-26
BOS
Jeremy Swayman
55 games, 2025-26
| WSH | Metric | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 51.9% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.8% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Washington Capitals
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alex Ovechkin | L | 34 | 29 | 63 |
 Dylan Strome | C | 21 | 39 | 60 |
 Alex Tuch | R | 26 | 30 | 57 |
 Jordan Kyrou | R | 25 | 32 | 56 |
Boston Bruins
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 David Pastrnak | R | 35 | 57 | 92 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Capitals | 98 | 51.2% |
| Boston Bruins | 99 | 54.2% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: BOS 5, WSH 4
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | BOS @ WSH | BOS 3, WSH 2 | WSH missed |
| 2026-03-07 | WSH @ BOS | WSH 1, BOS 3 | BOS hit |
| 2025-10-08 | BOS @ WSH | BOS 3, WSH 1 | WSH missed |
| 2025-04-01 | WSH @ BOS | WSH 4, BOS 3 | WSH hit |
| 2024-12-31 | BOS @ WSH | BOS 1, WSH 3 | WSH hit |
| 2024-12-23 | WSH @ BOS | WSH 1, BOS 4 | BOS hit |
| 2024-04-15 | BOS @ WSH | BOS 0, WSH 2 | BOS missed |
| 2024-03-30 | BOS @ WSH | BOS 5, WSH 4 | BOS hit |
 John-Jason Peterka | R | 25 | 28 | 53 |
|---|
 Morgan Geekie | C | 27 | 23 | 50 |
|---|
 Charlie McAvoy | D | 10 | 38 | 48 |
|---|
VAN@
BOS
