Who is favoured, Tampa Bay Lightning or Ottawa Senators?

Ottawa Senators, at 52.7% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators, Sat, Dec 5: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Sat, Dec 5, 7:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay LightningTBL

104 proj. pts · 65.7% playoffs

Andrei Vasilevskiy · 0.912 SV%

Cvs7:00 PM ET

Ottawa SenatorsOTT

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

OTT controlled play at 5v5 last season, 55.4% of the expected goals to 54.1%; OTT's power play ran at 22.5% against a TBL kill at 82.4%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) saved 1.5 goals above expected to Linus Ullmark's -23.2, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.891.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Ottawa Senators over Tampa Bay Lightning is where it starts, not where it ends.