PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Sat, Jan 2, 7:00 PM ET
Linus Ullmark · 0.891 SV%
The preseason ratings make Washington Capitals 53.1% to win at home: barely a lean at all, worth 3.1 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project WSH for 98 points and OTT for 100.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Washington Capitals a 53.1% chance to win on Sat, Jan 2. The matchup detail follows.
at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (51.9% to 51.3%).
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Logan Thompson (WSH) saved 2.8 goals above expected to Linus Ullmark's -23.2, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.891.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Washington Capitals over Ottawa Senators is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
OTT
Linus Ullmark
49 games, 2025-26
WSH
Logan Thompson
58 games, 2025-26
| OTT | Metric | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 51.3% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.9% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tim Stützle | C | 32 | 57 | 90 |
 Drake Batherson | R | 26 | 37 | 63 |
 Jake Sanderson | D | 12 | 42 | 54 |
 Claude Giroux | R | 16 | 37 | 53 |
Washington Capitals
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alex Ovechkin | L | 34 | 29 | 63 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators | 100 | 58.0% |
| Washington Capitals | 98 | 51.2% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: WSH 4, OTT 5
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | OTT @ WSH | OTT 1, WSH 4 | OTT missed |
| 2026-01-01 | WSH @ OTT | WSH 3, OTT 4 | OTT hit |
| 2025-10-25 | OTT @ WSH | OTT 7, WSH 1 | WSH missed |
| 2025-03-03 | OTT @ WSH | OTT 4, WSH 5 | WSH hit |
| 2025-01-30 | WSH @ OTT | WSH 4, OTT 5 | WSH missed |
| 2025-01-16 | WSH @ OTT | WSH 1, OTT 0 | WSH hit |
| 2024-04-07 | OTT @ WSH | OTT 3, WSH 2 | WSH missed |
| 2024-02-26 | OTT @ WSH | OTT 3, WSH 6 | OTT missed |
 Dylan Strome | C | 21 | 39 | 60 |
|---|
 Alex Tuch | R | 26 | 30 | 57 |
|---|
 Jordan Kyrou | R | 25 | 32 | 56 |
|---|
WSH@
SJS
