Who is favoured, Toronto Maple Leafs or Washington Capitals?

Washington Capitals, at 63.9% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals, Mon, Jan 4: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Mon, Jan 4, 7:30 PM ET

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

85 proj. pts · 22.9% playoffs

Sergei Bobrovsky · 0.877 SV%

Bvs7:30 PM ET

Washington CapitalsWSH

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

WSH controlled play at 5v5 last season, 49.9% of the expected goals to 45.9%; WSH's power play ran at 17.8% against a TOR kill at 81.2%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Logan Thompson (WSH) saved 2.8 goals above expected to Sergei Bobrovsky's -41.5, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.877.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Washington Capitals over Toronto Maple Leafs is where it starts, not where it ends.