Who is favoured, Washington Capitals or Vegas Golden Knights?

Vegas Golden Knights, at 53.0% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights, Sat, Jan 30: prediction and odds forecast

PuckCast Edge

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2026-27 forecast · Sat, Jan 30, 10:00 PM ET

Washington CapitalsWSH

98 proj. pts · 51.2% playoffs

Logan Thompson · 0.912 SV%

Cvs10:00 PM ET

Vegas Golden KnightsVGK

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

VGK controlled play at 5v5 last season, 54.7% of the expected goals to 49.9%; VGK's power play ran at 24.7% against a WSH kill at 80.1%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Logan Thompson (WSH) saved 2.8 goals above expected to Adin Hill's -23.2, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.871.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Vegas Golden Knights over Washington Capitals is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

WSH

Logan Thompson

SV%: 0.912
GSAx: +2.8
GAA: 2.44
Record: 31-21-6

58 games, 2025-26

VGK

Adin Hill

SV%: 0.871
GSAx: -23.2
GAA: 3.04
Record: 10-9-6

27 games, 2025-26

WSH	Metric	VGK
49.9%	xGF% (5v5)	54.7%
49.9%	Shot share	53.5%
3.2	Goals for / game	3.3
2.9	Goals against / game	2.9
17.8%	Power play	24.7%
80.1%	Penalty kill	82.2%
49.3%	Faceoffs	51.3%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Washington Capitals

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Alex Ovechkin	L	34	29	63
Dylan Strome	C	21	39	60
Alex Tuch	R	26	30	57
Jordan Kyrou	R	25	32	56

Vegas Golden Knights

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Mitch Marner	R	25	63	87

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-03-28	WSH @ VGK	VGK	WSH 5–4 VGK	Missed
2026-02-27	VGK @ WSH	WSH	VGK 2–3 WSH	Correct

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Washington Capitals	98	51.2%
Vegas Golden Knights	96	58.1%

Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.

The read

In goal

Last season, side by side

Who drives it

Schedule around it

Last season, head to head

Season outlook