PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Fri, Feb 12, 7:00 PM ET
Andrei Vasilevskiy · 0.912 SV%
The preseason ratings make Tampa Bay Lightning 55.8% to win at home: a modest lean, worth 5.8 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project TBL for 104 points and DAL for 103.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
TBL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 54.1% of the expected goals to 51.2%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) saved 1.5 goals above expected to Jake Oettinger's -14.5, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.899.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Tampa Bay Lightning over Dallas Stars is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
DAL
Jake Oettinger
54 games, 2025-26
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy
58 games, 2025-26
| DAL | Metric | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| 51.2% | xGF% (5v5) | 54.1% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Dallas Stars
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jason Robertson | L | 37 | 49 | 86 |
 Mikko Rantanen | R | 30 | 55 | 85 |
 Wyatt Johnston | C | 42 | 42 | 84 |
 Roope Hintz | C | 22 | 32 | 54 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nikita Kucherov | R | 33 | 67 | 100 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | TBL @ DAL | TBL | TBL 4–1 DAL | Correct |
| 2025-10-30 | DAL @ TBL | TBL | DAL 1–2 TBL | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Stars | 103 | 70.4% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 104 | 65.7% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
 Brandon Hagel | L | 31 | 43 | 74 |
|---|
 Jake Guentzel | C | 32 | 40 | 72 |
|---|
 Brayden Point | C | 29 | 36 | 65 |
|---|
ANA@
TBL
