PuckCast Edge
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Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Sun, Feb 14, 1:00 PM ET
Karel Vejmelka · 0.897 SV%
The preseason ratings make Washington Capitals 54.8% to win at home: barely a lean at all, worth 4.8 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project WSH for 98 points and UTA for 99.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Washington Capitals a 54.8% chance to win on Sun, Feb 14. The matchup detail follows.
UTA controlled play at 5v5 last season, 60.0% of the expected goals to 51.9%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Logan Thompson (WSH) saved 2.8 goals above expected to Karel Vejmelka's -22.7, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.897.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Washington Capitals over Utah Mammoth is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
UTA
Karel Vejmelka
64 games, 2025-26
WSH
Logan Thompson
58 games, 2025-26
| UTA | Metric | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 60.0% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.9% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Utah Mammoth
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Clayton Keller | R | 27 | 53 | 80 |
 Dylan Guenther | R | 33 | 33 | 66 |
 Logan Cooley | C | 29 | 33 | 61 |
 Nick Schmaltz | C | 22 | 37 | 59 |
Washington Capitals
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alex Ovechkin | L | 34 | 29 | 63 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Utah Mammoth | 99 | 60.8% |
| Washington Capitals | 98 | 51.2% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: WSH 2, UTA 2
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | WSH @ UTA | WSH 7, UTA 4 | UTA missed |
| 2026-03-03 | UTA @ WSH | UTA 3, WSH 2 | WSH missed |
| 2025-02-09 | UTA @ WSH | UTA 5, WSH 4 | WSH missed |
| 2024-11-18 | WSH @ UTA | WSH 6, UTA 2 | UTA missed |
 Dylan Strome | C | 21 | 39 | 60 |
|---|
 Alex Tuch | R | 26 | 30 | 57 |
|---|
 Jordan Kyrou | R | 25 | 32 | 56 |
|---|
NSH@
WSH
