PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Wed, Mar 3, 10:00 PM ET
Andrei Vasilevskiy · 0.912 SV%
The preseason ratings make Tampa Bay Lightning 55.4% to win on the road: a modest lean, worth 5.3 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project TBL for 104 points and LAK for 90.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Tampa Bay Lightning a 55.4% chance to win on Wed, Mar 3. The matchup detail follows.
TBL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 53.7% of the expected goals to 48.3%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) saved 1.5 goals above expected to Darcy Kuemper's -22.9, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.891.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Tampa Bay Lightning over Los Angeles Kings is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy
58 games, 2025-26
LAK
Darcy Kuemper
50 games, 2025-26
| TBL | Metric | LAK |
|---|---|---|
| 53.7% | xGF% (5v5) | 48.3% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nikita Kucherov | R | 33 | 67 | 100 |
 Brandon Hagel | L | 31 | 43 | 74 |
 Jake Guentzel | C | 32 | 40 | 72 |
 Brayden Point | C | 29 | 36 | 65 |
Los Angeles Kings
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Artemi Panarin | L | 25 | 47 | 72 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 104 | 65.7% |
| Los Angeles Kings | 90 | 44.3% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: LAK 3, TBL 3
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | TBL @ LAK | TBL 5, LAK 3 | LAK missed |
| 2025-12-18 | LAK @ TBL | LAK 2, TBL 1 | TBL missed |
| 2025-01-30 | LAK @ TBL | LAK 0, TBL 3 | TBL hit |
| 2025-01-04 | TBL @ LAK | TBL 1, LAK 2 | LAK hit |
| 2024-03-23 | TBL @ LAK | TBL 3, LAK 4 | LAK hit |
| 2024-01-09 | LAK @ TBL | LAK 2, TBL 3 | LAK missed |
 Adrian Kempe | R | 27 | 31 | 58 |
|---|
 Quinton Byfield | R | 22 | 31 | 52 |
|---|
 Kevin Fiala | L | 22 | 28 | 50 |
|---|
LAK@
EDM
