Who is favoured, Utah Mammoth or Tampa Bay Lightning?

Tampa Bay Lightning, at 59.0% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Utah Mammoth at Tampa Bay Lightning, Sun, Feb 28: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Sun, Feb 28, 7:00 PM ET

Utah MammothUTA

99 proj. pts · 60.8% playoffs

Karel Vejmelka · 0.897 SV%

Bvs7:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay LightningTBL

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

TBL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 54.1% of the expected goals to 52.6%; TBL's power play ran at 20.4% against a UTA kill at 78.3%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) saved 1.5 goals above expected to Karel Vejmelka's -22.7, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.897.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Tampa Bay Lightning over Utah Mammoth is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

UTA

Karel Vejmelka

SV%: 0.897
GSAx: -22.7
GAA: 2.75
Record: 38-20-3

64 games, 2025-26

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy

SV%: 0.912
GSAx: +1.5
GAA: 2.31
Record: 39-15-4

58 games, 2025-26

UTA	Metric	TBL
52.6%	xGF% (5v5)	54.1%
51.2%	Shot share	51.6%
3.3	Goals for / game	3.4
3.0	Goals against / game	2.8
19.1%	Power play	20.4%
78.3%	Penalty kill	82.4%
49.1%	Faceoffs	47.1%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Utah Mammoth

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Clayton Keller	R	27	53	80
Dylan Guenther	R	33	33	66
Logan Cooley	C	29	33	61
Nick Schmaltz	C	22	37	59

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Nikita Kucherov	R	33	67	100

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-01-26	UTA @ TBL	TBL	UTA 0–2 TBL	Correct
2025-11-02	TBL @ UTA	TBL	TBL 4–2 UTA	Correct

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Utah Mammoth	99	60.8%
Tampa Bay Lightning	104	65.7%

Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.

The read

In goal

Last season, side by side

Who drives it

Schedule around it

Last season, head to head

Season outlook