Who is favoured, Colorado Avalanche or Philadelphia Flyers?

Colorado Avalanche, at 50.9% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers, Mon, Oct 19: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Mon, Oct 19, 7:00 PM ET

Colorado AvalancheCOL

107 proj. pts · 78.3% playoffs

Mackenzie Blackwood · 0.904 SV%

Cvs7:00 PM ET

Philadelphia FlyersPHI

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

COL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 57.6% of the expected goals to 51.3%; COL's power play ran at 17.8% against a PHI kill at 78.7%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Dan Vladar (PHI) saved -5.5 goals above expected to Mackenzie Blackwood's -6.0, on save percentages of 0.906 and 0.904.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Colorado Avalanche over Philadelphia Flyers is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood

SV%: 0.904
GSAx: -6.0
GAA: 2.50
Record: 23-10-2

39 games, 2025-26

PHI

Dan Vladar

SV%: 0.906
GSAx: -5.5
GAA: 2.42
Record: 29-14-7

52 games, 2025-26

COL	Metric	PHI
57.6%	xGF% (5v5)	51.3%
56.3%	Shot share	49.5%
3.7	Goals for / game	2.8
2.4	Goals against / game	2.9
17.8%	Power play	14.8%
84.0%	Penalty kill	78.7%
51.2%	Faceoffs	49.6%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Colorado Avalanche

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Nathan MacKinnon	C	38	70	108
Cale Makar	D	23	60	84
Martin Necas	C	29	51	80
Nazem Kadri	C	18	27	45

Philadelphia Flyers

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Travis Konecny	R	25	39	64

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-01-23	PHI @ COL	COL	PHI 7–3 COL	Missed
2025-12-07	COL @ PHI	COL	COL 3–2 PHI	Correct

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Colorado Avalanche	107	78.3%
Philadelphia Flyers	98	53.4%

Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.

The read

In goal

Last season, side by side

Who drives it

Schedule around it

Last season, head to head

Season outlook