PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Tue, Oct 27, 8:00 PM ET
Jake Oettinger · 0.899 SV%
The preseason ratings make Dallas Stars 61.3% to win at home — a clear lean, worth 11.3 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project DAL for 103 points and NJD for 94.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
DAL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.2% of the expected goals to 49.0%; DAL's power play ran at 29.7% against a NJD kill at 79.3%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Jake Allen (NJD) saved -7.2 goals above expected to Jake Oettinger's -14.5, on save percentages of 0.904 and 0.899.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Dallas Stars over New Jersey Devils is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
NJD
Jake Allen
37 games, 2025-26
DAL
Jake Oettinger
54 games, 2025-26
| NJD | Metric | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 49.0% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.2% |
| 51.9% | Shot share | 49.3% |
| 2.8 | Goals for / game | 3.3 |
| 3.1 | Goals against / game | 2.8 |
| 21.9% | Power play | 29.7% |
| 79.3% | Penalty kill | 80.7% |
| 50.5% | Faceoffs | 51.4% |
New Jersey Devils
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 31 | 53 | 84 | |
| L | 22 | 51 | 72 | |
| C | 29 | 40 | 68 | |
| D | 8 | 38 | 47 |
Dallas Stars
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 37 | 49 | 86 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | NJD @ DAL | DAL | NJD 6–4 DAL | Missed |
| 2025-12-03 | DAL @ NJD | NJD | DAL 3–0 NJD | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| New Jersey Devils | 94 | 42.3% |
| Dallas Stars | 103 | 70.4% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 30 | 55 | 85 |
| C | 42 | 42 | 84 |
| C | 22 | 32 | 54 |