PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Wed, Oct 28, 9:00 PM ET
Mackenzie Blackwood · 0.904 SV%
The preseason ratings make Colorado Avalanche 64.1% to win at home — a clear lean, worth 14.1 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project COL for 107 points and NJD for 94.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
COL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 57.6% of the expected goals to 49.0%; COL's power play ran at 17.8% against a NJD kill at 79.3%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Mackenzie Blackwood (COL) saved -6.0 goals above expected to Jake Allen's -7.2, on save percentages of 0.904 and 0.904.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Colorado Avalanche over New Jersey Devils is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
NJD
Jake Allen
37 games, 2025-26
COL
Mackenzie Blackwood
39 games, 2025-26
| NJD | Metric | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 49.0% | xGF% (5v5) | 57.6% |
| 51.9% | Shot share | 56.3% |
| 2.8 | Goals for / game | 3.7 |
| 3.1 | Goals against / game | 2.4 |
| 21.9% | Power play | 17.8% |
| 79.3% | Penalty kill | 84.0% |
| 50.5% | Faceoffs | 51.2% |
New Jersey Devils
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 31 | 53 | 84 | |
| L | 22 | 51 | 72 | |
| C | 29 | 40 | 68 | |
| D | 8 | 38 | 47 |
Colorado Avalanche
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 38 | 70 | 108 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-28 | NJD @ COL | COL | NJD 4–8 COL | Correct |
| 2025-10-26 | COL @ NJD | COL | COL 3–4 NJD | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| New Jersey Devils | 94 | 42.3% |
| Colorado Avalanche | 107 | 78.3% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| D | 23 | 60 | 84 |
| C | 29 | 51 | 80 |
| C | 18 | 27 | 45 |