Who is favoured, Toronto Maple Leafs or Seattle Kraken?

Seattle Kraken, at 56.4% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken, Wed, Oct 28: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Wed, Oct 28, 10:00 PM ET

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

85 proj. pts · 22.9% playoffs

Sergei Bobrovsky · 0.877 SV%

Bvs10:00 PM ET

Seattle KrakenSEA

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (45.8% to 45.9%); SEA's power play ran at 19.6% against a TOR kill at 81.2%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Joey Daccord (SEA) saved -18.4 goals above expected to Sergei Bobrovsky's -41.5, on save percentages of 0.897 and 0.877.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Seattle Kraken over Toronto Maple Leafs is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

TOR

Sergei Bobrovsky

SV%: 0.877
GSAx: -41.5
GAA: 3.07
Record: 27-23-1

52 games, 2025-26

SEA

Joey Daccord

SV%: 0.897
GSAx: -18.4
GAA: 3.03
Record: 20-20-6

47 games, 2025-26

TOR	Metric	SEA
45.9%	xGF% (5v5)	45.8%
44.8%	Shot share	46.5%
3.1	Goals for / game	2.7
3.6	Goals against / game	3.1
21.3%	Power play	19.6%
81.2%	Penalty kill	72.2%
54.2%	Faceoffs	47.7%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Auston Matthews	C	40	39	79
William Nylander	R	31	43	74
Matthew Knies	L	24	37	61
John Tavares	C	25	33	58

Seattle Kraken

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Matty Beniers	C	21	31	51

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-01-29	TOR @ SEA	SEA	TOR 2–5 SEA	Correct
2025-10-18	SEA @ TOR	TOR	SEA 4–3 TOR	Missed

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Toronto Maple Leafs	85	22.9%
Seattle Kraken	88	38.6%

Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.

The read

In goal

Last season, side by side

Who drives it

Schedule around it

Last season, head to head

Season outlook