PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Sat, Oct 31, 10:00 PM ET
Mackenzie Blackwood · 0.904 SV%
The preseason ratings make Colorado Avalanche 67.6% to win at home — a clear lean, worth 17.6 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project COL for 107 points and CGY for 89.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
COL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 57.6% of the expected goals to 46.1%; COL's power play ran at 17.8% against a CGY kill at 80.4%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Mackenzie Blackwood (COL) saved -6.0 goals above expected to Dustin Wolf's -17.8, on save percentages of 0.904 and 0.899.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Colorado Avalanche over Calgary Flames is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
CGY
Dustin Wolf
57 games, 2025-26
COL
Mackenzie Blackwood
39 games, 2025-26
| CGY | Metric | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 46.1% | xGF% (5v5) | 57.6% |
| 48.4% | Shot share | 56.3% |
| 2.5 | Goals for / game | 3.7 |
| 3.1 | Goals against / game | 2.4 |
| 16.2% | Power play | 17.8% |
| 80.4% | Penalty kill | 84.0% |
| 49.3% | Faceoffs | 51.2% |
Calgary Flames
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 15 | 29 | 45 | |
| R | 18 | 24 | 43 | |
| C | 16 | 22 | 38 | |
| L | 17 | 20 | 36 |
Colorado Avalanche
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 38 | 70 | 108 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | COL @ CGY | COL | COL 3–1 CGY | Correct |
| 2026-04-09 | CGY @ COL | COL | CGY 1–3 COL | Correct |
| 2026-03-30 | CGY @ COL | COL | CGY 2–9 COL | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Calgary Flames | 89 | 41.6% |
| Colorado Avalanche | 107 | 78.3% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| D | 23 | 60 | 84 |
| C | 29 | 51 | 80 |
| C | 18 | 27 | 45 |