Who is favoured, Buffalo Sabres or Tampa Bay Lightning?

Tampa Bay Lightning, at 54.5% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning, Sat, Jan 2: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Sat, Jan 2, 7:00 PM ET

Buffalo SabresBUF

104 proj. pts · 67.2% playoffs

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · 0.910 SV%

Cvs7:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay LightningTBL

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

TBL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 54.1% of the expected goals to 50.7%; TBL's power play ran at 20.4% against a BUF kill at 81.0%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) saved 1.5 goals above expected to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen's -1.3, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.910.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Tampa Bay Lightning over Buffalo Sabres is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

SV%: 0.910
GSAx: -1.3
GAA: 2.52
Record: 22-9-3

35 games, 2025-26

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy

SV%: 0.912
GSAx: +1.5
GAA: 2.31
Record: 39-15-4

58 games, 2025-26

BUF	Metric	TBL
50.7%	xGF% (5v5)	54.1%
49.7%	Shot share	51.6%
3.4	Goals for / game	3.4
2.9	Goals against / game	2.8
19.7%	Power play	20.4%
81.0%	Penalty kill	82.4%
45.9%	Faceoffs	47.1%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Tage Thompson	C	35	33	68
Rasmus Dahlin	D	18	50	68
Ryan McLeod	C	14	30	44
Jack Quinn	R	17	26	43

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Nikita Kucherov	R	33	67	100

Last season, head to head

ledger

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-04-06	TBL @ BUF	TBL	TBL 2–4 BUF	Missed
2026-03-08	TBL @ BUF	TBL	TBL 7–8 BUF	Missed
2026-02-28	BUF @ TBL	TBL	BUF 6–2 TBL	Missed
2026-02-03	BUF @ TBL	TBL	BUF 3–4 TBL	Correct

Season outlook

projected standings

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Buffalo Sabres	104	67.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning	104	65.7%