PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Sat, Feb 20, 10:00 PM ET
Kevin Lankinen · 0.875 SV%
The preseason ratings make Colorado Avalanche 64.8% to win on the road — a clear lean, worth 14.8 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project COL for 107 points and VAN for 80.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
COL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 57.6% of the expected goals to 43.2%; COL's power play ran at 17.8% against a VAN kill at 71.5%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Mackenzie Blackwood (COL) saved -6.0 goals above expected to Kevin Lankinen's -44.4, on save percentages of 0.904 and 0.875.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Colorado Avalanche over Vancouver Canucks is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
COL
Mackenzie Blackwood
39 games, 2025-26
VAN
Kevin Lankinen
47 games, 2025-26
| COL | Metric | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 57.6% | xGF% (5v5) | 43.2% |
| 56.3% | Shot share | 46.5% |
| 3.7 | Goals for / game | 2.6 |
| 2.4 | Goals against / game | 3.8 |
| 17.8% | Power play | 21.8% |
| 84.0% | Penalty kill | 71.5% |
| 51.2% | Faceoffs | 49.3% |
Colorado Avalanche
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 38 | 70 | 108 | |
| D | 23 | 60 | 84 | |
| C | 29 | 51 | 80 | |
| C | 18 | 27 | 45 |
Vancouver Canucks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 23 | 42 | 65 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | VAN @ COL | COL | VAN 8–6 COL | Missed |
| 2025-12-02 | VAN @ COL | COL | VAN 1–3 COL | Correct |
| 2025-11-09 | COL @ VAN | COL | COL 5–4 VAN | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | 107 | 78.3% |
| Vancouver Canucks | 80 | 21.8% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 25 | 29 | 53 |
| C | 18 | 28 | 46 |
| D | 7 | 36 | 43 |