PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
Final · Thu, Oct 1, 7:00 PM ET
Igor Shesterkin · 0.912 SV%
The preseason ratings make Tampa Bay Lightning 53.7% to win on the road: barely a lean at all, worth 3.7 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project TBL for 104 points and NYR for 91.
The model leaned Tampa Bay Lightning at 53.7%.
TBL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 54.1% of the expected goals to 48.0%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Igor Shesterkin (NYR) saved 2.2 goals above expected to Andrei Vasilevskiy's 1.5, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.912.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Tampa Bay Lightning over New York Rangers is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy
58 games, 2025-26
NYR
Igor Shesterkin
51 games, 2025-26
| TBL | Metric | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 54.1% | xGF% (5v5) | 48.0% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nikita Kucherov | R | 33 | 67 | 100 |
 Brandon Hagel | L | 31 | 43 | 74 |
 Jake Guentzel | C | 32 | 40 | 72 |
 Brayden Point | C | 29 | 36 | 65 |
New York Rangers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Adam Fox | D | 11 | 51 | 61 |
Tampa Bay LightningSeason opener: no previous game, no rest edge either way.
New York RangersComes in from Tue, Sep 29 · NYR @ BOS
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | NYR @ TBL | TBL | NYR 4–2 TBL | Missed |
| 2025-11-29 | TBL @ NYR | TBL | TBL 4–1 NYR | Correct |
| 2025-11-12 | NYR @ TBL | TBL | NYR 7–3 TBL | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 104 | 65.7% |
| New York Rangers | 91 | 37.5% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
 Mika Zibanejad | C | 24 | 37 | 61 |
|---|
 J.T. Miller | C | 19 | 37 | 56 |
|---|
 Pavel Dorofeyev | R | 32 | 22 | 54 |
|---|
