Who is favoured, Tampa Bay Lightning or New York Rangers?

Tampa Bay Lightning, at 53.7% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers, Thu, Oct 1: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Thu, Oct 1, 7:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay LightningTBL

104 proj. pts · 65.7% playoffs

Andrei Vasilevskiy · 0.912 SV%

Cvs7:00 PM ET

New York RangersNYR

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

TBL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 54.1% of the expected goals to 48.0%; TBL's power play ran at 20.4% against a NYR kill at 79.9%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Igor Shesterkin (NYR) saved 2.2 goals above expected to Andrei Vasilevskiy's 1.5, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.912.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Tampa Bay Lightning over New York Rangers is where it starts, not where it ends.

The market

opening-week board

Best posted price per side across 4 books, taken Sep 17. The percentages beside them are what those prices imply with the book’s margin removed.

Side	Best price	Book	Market (no vig)	Forecast	Gap
TBL	-135	DraftKings	55.9%	53.7%	-2.2 pts
NYR	+120	BetMGM	44.1%	46.3%	+2.2 pts

Total 5.5 · over -125 at DraftKings · under +110 at Bovada. No lean either way: the preseason forecast has no goal model, so the model’s total publishes with the slate.

This is a rating forecast against a posted price, not a bet. No stake is sized and nothing here enters the graded ledger. The full model read publishes inside seven days of puck drop and replaces these numbers.