PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
Final · Sat, Oct 3, 7:00 PM ET
Andrei Vasilevskiy · 0.912 SV%
The preseason ratings make Tampa Bay Lightning 59.2% to win at home: a modest lean, worth 9.2 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project TBL for 104 points and WSH for 98.
The model leaned Tampa Bay Lightning at 59.2%.
PuckCast had Tampa Bay Lightning at 59.2% to win this game on Sat, Oct 3. The matchup detail follows.
TBL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 54.1% of the expected goals to 49.9%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Logan Thompson (WSH) saved 2.8 goals above expected to Andrei Vasilevskiy's 1.5, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.912.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Tampa Bay Lightning over Washington Capitals is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
WSH
Logan Thompson
58 games, 2025-26
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy
58 games, 2025-26
| WSH | Metric | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| 49.9% | xGF% (5v5) | 54.1% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Washington Capitals
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alex Ovechkin | L | 34 | 29 | 63 |
 Dylan Strome | C | 21 | 39 | 60 |
 Alex Tuch | R | 26 | 30 | 57 |
 Jordan Kyrou | R | 25 | 32 | 56 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nikita Kucherov | R | 33 | 67 | 100 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | TBL @ WSH | TBL | TBL 5–3 WSH | Correct |
| 2025-11-08 | WSH @ TBL | TBL | WSH 2–3 TBL | Correct |
| 2025-10-14 | TBL @ WSH | WSH | TBL 2–3 WSH | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Capitals | 98 | 51.2% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 104 | 65.7% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
 Brandon Hagel | L | 31 | 43 | 74 |
|---|
 Jake Guentzel | C | 32 | 40 | 72 |
|---|
 Brayden Point | C | 29 | 36 | 65 |
|---|
TBL@
NYI
