PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
Final · Fri, Oct 23, 9:00 PM ET
Andrei Vasilevskiy · 0.912 SV%
The preseason ratings make Colorado Avalanche 57.1% to win at home: a modest lean, worth 7.1 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project COL for 107 points and TBL for 104.
The model leaned Colorado Avalanche at 57.1%.
PuckCast had Colorado Avalanche at 57.1% to win this game on Fri, Oct 23. The matchup detail follows.
at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (53.4% to 53.7%).
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) saved 1.5 goals above expected to Mackenzie Blackwood's -6.0, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.904.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Colorado Avalanche over Tampa Bay Lightning is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy
58 games, 2025-26
COL
Mackenzie Blackwood
39 games, 2025-26
| TBL | Metric | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 53.7% | xGF% (5v5) | 53.4% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nikita Kucherov | R | 33 | 67 | 100 |
 Brandon Hagel | L | 31 | 43 | 74 |
 Jake Guentzel | C | 32 | 40 | 72 |
 Brayden Point | C | 29 | 36 | 65 |
Colorado Avalanche
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nathan MacKinnon | C | 38 | 70 | 108 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 104 | 65.7% |
| Colorado Avalanche | 107 | 78.3% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: COL 2, TBL 4
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-06 | COL @ TBL | COL 2, TBL 4 | COL missed |
| 2025-11-04 | TBL @ COL | TBL 2, COL 3 | COL hit |
| 2024-11-25 | COL @ TBL | COL 2, TBL 8 | TBL hit |
| 2024-10-30 | TBL @ COL | TBL 5, COL 2 | COL missed |
| 2024-02-15 | COL @ TBL | COL 3, TBL 6 | COL missed |
| 2023-11-27 | TBL @ COL | TBL 1, COL 4 | COL hit |
 Cale Makar | D | 23 | 60 | 84 |
|---|
 Martin Necas | C | 29 | 51 | 80 |
|---|
 Nazem Kadri | C | 18 | 27 | 45 |
|---|
CGY@
COL
