Who is favoured, Ottawa Senators or Toronto Maple Leafs?

Ottawa Senators, at 56.1% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs, Sat, Oct 3: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Sat, Oct 3, 7:00 PM ET

Ottawa SenatorsOTT

100 proj. pts · 58.0% playoffs

Linus Ullmark · 0.891 SV%

Bvs7:00 PM ET

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

OTT controlled play at 5v5 last season, 55.4% of the expected goals to 45.9%; OTT's power play ran at 22.5% against a TOR kill at 81.2%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Linus Ullmark (OTT) saved -23.2 goals above expected to Sergei Bobrovsky's -41.5, on save percentages of 0.891 and 0.877.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Ottawa Senators over Toronto Maple Leafs is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

OTT

Linus Ullmark

SV%: 0.891
GSAx: -23.2
GAA: 2.73
Record: 28-12-8

49 games, 2025-26

TOR

Sergei Bobrovsky

SV%: 0.877
GSAx: -41.5
GAA: 3.07
Record: 27-23-1

52 games, 2025-26

OTT	Metric	TOR
55.4%	xGF% (5v5)	45.9%
53.7%	Shot share	44.8%
3.3	Goals for / game	3.1
3.0	Goals against / game	3.6
22.5%	Power play	21.3%
76.4%	Penalty kill	81.2%
54.7%	Faceoffs	54.2%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Ottawa Senators

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Tim Stützle	C	32	57	90
Drake Batherson	R	26	37	63
William Eklund	L	17	40	57
Jake Sanderson	D	12	42	54

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Auston Matthews	C	40	39	79

Last season, head to head

ledger

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-04-15	TOR @ OTT	OTT	TOR 1–3 OTT	Correct
2026-03-21	TOR @ OTT	OTT	TOR 2–5 OTT	Correct
2026-02-28	OTT @ TOR	OTT	OTT 5–2 TOR	Correct
2025-12-27	OTT @ TOR	OTT	OTT 5–7 TOR	Missed

Season outlook

projected standings

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Ottawa Senators	100	58.0%
Toronto Maple Leafs	85	22.9%