Who Wins the NHL Awards in 2026-27?
Connor McDavid is the model's Art Ross favorite at 38.7%, on a projected 127 points. Odds for the Art Ross, Norris and Vezina, a projected goal-scoring leader for the Rocket, and why the Calder can't be modeled.
Connor McDavid is the model's favorite for the Art Ross Trophy in 2026-27, projected for a league-leading 127 points and given a 38.7% chance to lead the league in scoring.
These are preseason projections, built before puck drop, regressed toward the mean and frozen until real games are played. Three of the five major awards below carry a probability; two don't, for reasons explained in each section. Where the data doesn't support a probability, this post says so instead of forcing a number onto it.
Art Ross Trophy (scoring leader)
| Rank | Player | Team | Proj. Points | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor McDavid | EDM | 127 | 38.7% |
| 2 | Nathan MacKinnon | COL | 108 | 13.4% |
| 3 | Nikita Kucherov | TBL | 100 | 6.7% |
| 4 | Macklin Celebrini | SJS | 99 | 6.4% |
| 5 | Leon Draisaitl | EDM | 95 | 4.6% |
McDavid's 38.7% is a real favorite in a wide-open field, not a lock. MacKinnon, Kucherov, Celebrini and Draisaitl combine for another 31.1%, and there's a long tail behind them.
Rocket Richard Trophy (goal-scoring leader)
The awards model doesn't carry a probability for the Rocket Richard. What the projections do carry is projected goals for every skater, and reading that column top to bottom gives a goal-scoring leader:
| Rank | Player | Team | Proj. Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wyatt Johnston | DAL | 42 |
| 2 | Cole Caufield | MTL | 41 |
| 3 | Auston Matthews | TOR | 40 |
| 4 | Connor McDavid | EDM | 40 |
| 5 | Macklin Celebrini | SJS | 39 |
Wyatt Johnston tops this list at 42 projected goals, ahead of Cole Caufield at 41. This is the model's projected leaderboard, not a graded award probability the way the Art Ross, Norris and Vezina numbers below are.
Norris Trophy (best defenseman)
| Rank | Player | Team | Proj. Points | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cale Makar | COL | 84 | 29.7% |
| 2 | Quinn Hughes | MIN | 78 | 19.8% |
| 3 | Lane Hutson | MTL | 77 | 17.0% |
| 4 | Evan Bouchard | EDM | 76 | 15.5% |
| 5 | Rasmus Dahlin | BUF | 68 | 6.2% |
Cale Makar is the favorite at 29.7%, but the top four defensemen combine for 82% between them, the tightest race of the three probability-carrying awards here.
Vezina Trophy (best goaltender)
| Rank | Goalie | Team | Proj. SV% | Proj. Games | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrei Vasilevskiy | TBL | .904 | 55 | 13.1% |
| 2 | Connor Hellebuyck | WPG | .902 | 56 | 10.4% |
| 3 | Igor Shesterkin | NYR | .903 | 52 | 8.8% |
| 4 | Ilya Sorokin | NYI | .901 | 54 | 8.3% |
| 5 | Logan Thompson | WSH | .902 | 46 | 5.8% |
| Goalie | SV% | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Vasilevskiy | .904 | 13.1% |
| Hellebuyck | .902 | 10.4% |
| Shesterkin | .903 | 8.8% |
| Sorokin | .901 | 8.3% |
| Thompson | .902 | 5.8% |
Andrei Vasilevskiy leads at 13.1%, the lowest favorite's odds of any award covered here. The Vezina field is deep: five goalies within eight points of each other on save percentage, and none of them a heavy favorite.
Calder Trophy (best rookie)
There isn't a Calder favorite here, and that's a limit of the data, not an oversight. The Calder goes to a rookie, and a rookie by definition has no prior NHL season to project from. The skater projection model is built entirely on a player's own career history; there's no row in the underlying data for someone who hasn't played an NHL game yet. This is a structural gap, not something a future update fills, and a guess dressed up as a number would be worse than saying nothing.
FAQ
Who is favored to win the Art Ross Trophy in 2026-27? Connor McDavid, at 38.7%, on a projected 127 points, the model's clearest favorite of the three awards here that carry a probability.
Who leads the NHL in projected goals for 2026-27? Wyatt Johnston projects for a league-leading 42 goals, one ahead of Cole Caufield's 41. This is a projected leaderboard read straight off the skater projections, not a graded Rocket Richard probability the way the Art Ross, Norris and Vezina numbers are.
Who is favored to win the Norris Trophy in 2026-27? Cale Makar, at 29.7%, narrowly ahead of Quinn Hughes at 19.8% and Lane Hutson at 17.0% in the tightest of the three probability-carrying award races covered here.
Who is favored to win the Vezina Trophy in 2026-27? Andrei Vasilevskiy, at 13.1%, the softest favorite of any award here, in a five-goalie field bunched within eight points of projected save percentage.
Does the model have a Calder Trophy favorite for 2026-27? No. Rookies have no prior NHL season, and the skater projection model runs entirely on career history, so there's nothing in the data to project a first-year player from. That's a structural limit of the data, not a gap a future update fills.
These are preseason projections: last season's results regressed toward the mean, frozen before a single 2026-27 game has been played. See the 2026-27 season hub and the full awards page for the live version of these tables. Once games are played, check the live NHL standings or the results-based power rankings to see which teams are actually pacing these races.